Nearshoring gains are under strain from a variety of sources, including a tenfold increase in illegal border crossings. Even cities traditionally supportive of immigrant communities who proudly proclaimed themselves "sanctuary cities" are feeling the strain, prompting questions about border control policies. Escalating crime along transportation routes and increased scrutiny on shipments into the U.S. further exacerbate the situation, potentially impacting future trade negotiations under USMCA slated to occur in 2026. US-Mexico border management, and the illegal immigration impact, are creating nearshoring challenges and headaches for Democrats who which to remain in power beyond 2024.
Washington DC expanded visa restrictions for transportation operators involved in "facilitating irregular migration," signaling efforts by Biden to tackle the seemingly out-of-control and wide-open southern border. Americans value immigration and are by most accounts the most welcoming country in the world for new immigrants seeking a new life. The pushback has nothing to do with anti-immigrant sentiment and everything to do with proper management and doing what is best for both the people of Mexico and America.
Illegal border crossings in 2023 were 10x the illegal crossings just seven years prior. The statistics reveal a staggering increase in illegal border crossings over the past decade::
2024 (SO FAR): 988,819
2023: 3,201,144
2022: 2,766,582
2021: 1,956,519
2020: 405,036
2019: 859,501
2018: 404,142
2017: 310,531
The new restrictions will target, according to the US State Department:
"...owners, executives, and senior officials of charter flight, ground and, and maritime transportation companies providing transportation services designed for use primarily by persons intending to migrate irregularly to the United States."
Concerns about lax border enforcement have sparked debates, with theories circulating about the lack of action from Washington D.C. Recent political shifts suggest a growing focus on immigration issues, driven by their impact on elections. Traditional Democratic strongholds such as New York, Chicago, and San Francisco face new challenges as undocumented migrants seek support and benefits in these cities. These sanctuary cities have become magnets for the wave of illegal immigrants who arrive and receive generous financial, food, and housing benefits with few checks in place to ensure only the truly needy are receiving assistance.
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Given the chaos at the southern border, nearshoring investments should be undertaken with confidence. Who will cover the cost of delays or closings of border crossings? The chaos has denigrated into increased crime causing truck drivers to block key Mexican highways in February over lawlessness. The strike organizer, Rafael Ortiz, leader of the transport group Amotac, told the media that more strikes will follow if the governments do not meet the demands to fight the crime.
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